Thursday’s Christine Ford-Brett Kavanaugh Senate spectacle was great for cable news ratings, if perhaps not so good for any chance of ending the increasing polarization of the American people.
What’s becoming clear is that the Christine Ford allegations, and the follow-on accusations of sexual misconduct against the Supreme Court nominee even less credible than those of Ford, is Thursday’s spectacle and the media frenzy around the smear campaign against Kavanaugh is anything but good for the Democrat Party.
You may see polls showing Kavanaugh isn’t a particularly popular Supreme Court nominee. You might see legacy media reports indicating that Kavanaugh is a political problem for Republicans. Take all of that and throw it in the trash, because it’s wishful thinking by partisan Dems in newsrooms.
Here’s what’s real: to have any chance of capturing the Senate in the midterms, the Democrats have to hold on to better than a half-dozen seats in states President Trump carried in 2016. And in all of those states, the Kavanaugh nomination is going to be a major negative for those incumbent Democrat senators.
Regardless of how they vote.
Let’s say you’re Joe Manchin in West Virginia. What you needed was for this nomination to be uncontroversial, and a sure thing for confirmation. A party-line contested vote the whole country is watching is a nightmare. Why? Because in a red state like the one Manchin represents, the majority will favor confirmation and find it to be a decisive issue in their vote — so Manchin voting against Kavanaugh will set him up to reap the wrath of the voters in a state which went 65 percent for Trump in 2016.
But it’s worse than that for Manchin, because he doesn’t have a good escape from the Kavanaugh confirmation. You’d say his easy way out is to vote yes, except what the Left has done is to so whip up their voters with the Ford allegations and the copycats who followed that Manchin will lose votes from his own side if he votes to confirm the judge.
This isn’t a theory, by the way. It’s what the polls show.
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