As Theresa May steels herself for an almost certain vote on her leadership this week, she knows that winning would be only the start of a grim, month-long battle for survival.
Like a storm-battered ship, she must navigate the deadliest of channels, relying on fate alone to steer her away from the rocks. Several obstacles lie ahead, which will come at her thick and fast in the ultimate test of her famed durability. Her backbenchers, the DUP, the EU and Parliament itself could all bring her down, with bookies offering odds of 5/4 that she will be gone by the end of the year.
Her worst case scenario would see her forced out as soon as Tuesday if, as expected, Tory Brexiteers summon enough support for a confidence vote.
To date, 25 Conservative MPs have confirmed they have written letters to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, stating they have no confidence in the prime minister and demanding a vote on whether she should stay.
If another 23 Tory MPs write similar letters, Sir Graham is duty-bound to call the vote (party rules stipulate a vote can be triggered by 15 per cent of its MPs) and Brexiteers are confident that threshold is within reach.